Comments on politics, the culture, economics, and sports by Paul Tuns. I am editor-in-chief of "The Interim," Canada's life and family newspaper, and author of "Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal" (2004) and "The Dauphin: The Truth about Justin Trudeau" (2015). I am some combination of conservative/libertarian, standing athwart history yelling "bullshit!" You can follow me on Twitter (@ptuns).

 
Scientology economics

Portfolio looks at estimates of how much the Church of Scientology brings in. Bottom line: lots. Surprising factoid: "The biggest recent U.S. gift was reportedly a $7.5 million donation from Nancy Cartwright, who does the voice of Bart Simpson."

Of course, it is all shrouded in secrecy, so most of the numbers are factoids (like a fact, not actual facts) and are taken with a grain of salt.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:01 AM

 
Noah couldn't build the ark today
















See here. In a word: regulations.

(via EclectEcon)
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:51 AM

 
WaPo worries about the lack of acorns

The story is about the disappearing Oak nuts, not the leftist nuts. NR's John Miller's comments are all you need.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:49 AM

 
Those who know the wrong history are doomed to repeat it,
Or, The New Deal fact of the day

George Will offers a history lesson in his WaPo column today:

"The assumption is that the New Deal vanquished the Depression. Intelligent, informed people differ about why the Depression lasted so long. But people whose recipe for recovery today is another New Deal should remember that America's biggest industrial collapse occurred in 1937, eight years after the 1929 stock market crash and nearly five years into the New Deal. In 1939, after a decade of frantic federal spending -- President Herbert Hoover increased it more than 50 percent between 1929 and the inauguration of Franklin Roosevelt -- unemployment was 17.2 percent."

Will elaborates:

"In a 2004 paper, Harold L. Cole of the University of California at Los Angeles and Lee E. Ohanian of UCLA and the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis argued that the Depression would have ended in 1936, rather than in 1943, were it not for policies that magnified the power of labor and encouraged the cartelization of industries. These policies expressed the New Deal premise that the Depression was caused by excessive competition that first reduced prices and wages and then reduced employment and consumer demand. In a forthcoming paper, Ohanian argues that "much of the depth of the Depression" is explained by Hoover's policy -- a precursor of the New Deal mentality -- of pressuring businesses to keep nominal wages fixed.

Furthermore, Hoover's 1932 increase in the top income tax rate, from 25 percent to 63 percent, was unhelpful. And FDR's hyperkinetic New Deal created uncertainties that paralyzed private-sector decision making."
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:43 AM

 
Steyn on Mumbai

Mark Steyn on the terrorist attacks in India:

"It’s missing the point to get into debates about whether this is the 'Deccan Mujahideen' or the ISI or al-Qaeda or Lashkar-e-Taiba. That’s a reductive argument. It could be all or none of them. The ideology has been so successfully seeded around the world that nobody needs a memo from corporate HQ to act: There are so many of these subgroups and individuals that they intersect across the planet in a million different ways. It’s not the Cold War, with a small network of deep sleepers being directly controlled by Moscow. There are no membership cards, only an ideology. That’s what has radicalized hitherto moderate Muslim communities from Indonesia to the Central Asian stans to Yorkshire, and co-opted what started out as more or less conventional nationalist struggles in the Caucasus and the Balkans into mere tentacles of the global jihad."
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:36 AM

 
Non-football NFL news

New York Times headline says it all about the New York Giant's star wide receiver: "Plaxico Burress Shoots Himself Accidentally." Nfl.com has the story, although the headline leaves out the critical information about shooting himself.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:32 AM

 
The coalition of left and lefter

Publius at GCH is skeptical that the Liberals and NDP will form a coalition government. Publius says:

"Prime Minister Dion? Minister of Finance Jack Layton? What will Bay Street think? What will the Blue Liberals think? What will the Greenistas think? This is an unHoly Alliance and its high priests are likely to get defrocked if it becomes a reality."

In theory he is right. But the theory takes into account only ideology, personalities, history and possible consequences of a deal, but not the (admittedly short-term) incentives. The unholy alliance of Dion's Liberals and Layton's NDP makes sense because this maneuvering is about preserving privilege: taxpayer-funded party financing. To a lesser degree, having boxed themselves in, it is also about preventing an election, handing a majority to the Conservatives and thus preserving their jobs. There might also be an element of lame duck Dion wanting to avoid the tag of being the first Liberal leader since Edward Blake not to be prime minister.

Publius will be correct if the political science professors are right, but I will be correct if the economists are right.

So Publius, should we bet a beer?
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:12 AM

 
The infinite wisdom of the Dalai Lama

The Telegraph reports that the Buddhist leader talked in Thailand about the problems that arise from conjugal relationships:

"Naturally as a human being...some kind of desire for sex comes, but then you use human intelligence to make comprehension that those relationships are always full of trouble ... Too much attachment towards your children, towards your partner," was "one of the obstacles or hindrances of peace of mind."

The celibate Buddhist claimed that the complications that come with sexual relations could lead to suicide and murder. Of course, a culture that completely embraces celibacy would be committing suicide.
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:04 PM

 
Any given Sunday










San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills: Niners make the trip East for the early game and play in the frigid open field at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Last week Trent Edwards wracked up huge points against the Kansas City Chiefs and he should do it again with the terrible pass defense of the Niners (average 314 aerial yards per game over the past three games). Niners don't pressure QBs so Edwards will have all the time in the world to find his passing targets. Bills are favoured by seven and they cover.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: First-year coach John Harbaugh and rookie QB Joe Flacco have guided the Ravens to an impressive 7-4 record and, more impressively, a surprisingly strong offense (top half in the league). Ravens have a pair of ground threats in Willis MacGahee and Le'Ron McClain. The Ravens shake up their offense just enough to keep opposing defenses off balance. Cincy has scored just 74 points over the past six games. Each of the four Baltimore losses have come against teams who are today in position to make the playoffs. They shouldn't have any trouble with the Bengals and cover the 7-point spread.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs are perfect at home and the Saints are 1-4 on the road. Tampa has one the better defenses and they seldom give up big plays, but the did when they last faced QB Drew Brees in week one (343 yards and TDs of 39, 84, 42 yards). Bucs QB Jeff Garcia should be able to exploit the Saints' weak pass defense. Tampa doesn't score lots (their 38 points last week against Detroit was the most since 2002 and 14 of those points came off defensive TDs and special teams). Bucs win but don't cover the 4.5 points.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins: A re-match of the opening game of the season, when the G-Men beat beating the Skins 16-7. Giants RB Brandon Jacobs and WR Plaxico Burress are hurt, but with the G-Men's depth, it shouldn't matter. Skins have looked vulnerable in the past three weeks, even in their Seahawks victory. Giants run defense might stop RB Clinton Portis. Giants are favoured by 3.5 and they cover easily because I can't see the Skins pressuring Eli Manning.

Miami Dolphins at St. Louis Rams: The Fins have a solid running game and the Rams give up a lot of running yards (162 per game). The Rams have mastered total crapitude, losing five in a row, the last four by at least 19 and have been outscored by 111 points over the past five. Dolphins are not very strong on defense, especially with OLB Joey Porter and ILB Channing Crowder questions marks for the game, but the Rams are not the team to exploit that weakness. Fins are favoured by 7.5 and should cover because of the complete offensive ineptitude of the Rams offense (fewest points and TDs in the league).

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: A surging Colts against the 27th ranked defense. The Browns have reverted back to the atrocious Derek Anderson at QB with Brady Quinn out for the season with a finger injury. Watch Peyton Manning throw to Anthony Gonzalez on third downs. Colts favoured by five. With Manning (one of the two MVP candidates) and Browns' lacklustre defense, the Colts win and easily cover.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: Which Packers team shows up? Which Panthers team? These two teams have had Jekyll and Hyde weeks; the Packers beat the Bears by 34 followed it up with a 22-point loss to the Saints. The Panthers had a seemingly impenetrable defense early in the season but lately have looked more human. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme has been awful for the past month, even when the Panthers win. Bad weather might help if it forces him to hand the ball off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart rather than pass it; Packers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. Packers are on the short week, but Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay should have an advantage playing in cold and possibly snowy Lambeau Field. Packers are favoured by three and that sounds about right.

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers: The storyline everyone is watching here is the return of Michael Turner to San Diego, where Turner backed up LT for four years. The real story is the under-estimation of the Chargers. Statistically, a case can be made that Philip Rivers is one of the best QBs in the game. He has the NFL's best passer-rating (103.3) and has thrown more TDs (23)than any other QB. He faces Atlanta's 27th ranked pass defense. Rookie QB Matt Ryan has had a respected first year (88.3 passer rating) and he should hook up with his favourite receiver, WR Roddy White, while facing the league's worst pass defense, but Ryan might be forced to go to the air more often than he'd like with the strong Chargers' run defense containing Turner. Bolts are favoured by four and they will cover.

Denver Broncos at New York Jets: The Jets defense is among the league's best but it is powered by their dominant run defense. The Broncs don't run, so the Jets need to stop Jay Cutler from passing the ball to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Denver secondary won't stop Brett Favre from getting the ball into the hands of WRs Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery and TE Dustin Keller. Even if the Jets fall behind, the Broncs have the worst second-half defense according to Football Outsiders. Jets win and cover the 7.5 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots: If you think the Pats are going to win, you'd point to the fact that last Sunday Matt Cassel became only the fifth QB to throw 400 yards in back-to-back games, Pat's offensive co-ordinator Josh McDaniels is comfortable utilizing the whole playbook with Cassel, the defense is getting better as the year progresses, and no one prepares a team for a game as well as coach Bill Belichick. If you think the Steelers are going to win, you'd point to the fact that Cassel hasn't faced a defense as good as Pittsburgh's, that the Steelers have had 10 ten days to prepare for this game and have Ben Roesthlisberger rest his sore shoulder. I'm going to give it to Steelers' because the Pats' secondary is still suspect giving Big Ben the chance to get the ball into the hands of Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh's D has not allowed more than 250 passing yards in any their previous 11 games, and their OLBs LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison are going to be all over Cassel. Pats are favoured by one, but I'm predicting the upset.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: The Chiefs defense is really, really, really bad. Oakland's defense hasn't been so terrible lately, allowing just 44 points in the past three games. The Raiders run (Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden are capable of being a great 1-2 rushing combo) and the Chiefs give up nearly 169 yards per game and have allowed the most running TDs (19). Oakland covers the three points even if the Chiefs offensive is improving with Tyler Thigpen spreading the offense around more effectively in the past four games than KC had for the first half of the season. Repeat: the Chiefs defense is really, really, really bad.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson should be unstoppable at home on the turf. Minny's quality O-line against the Bears' rejuvenated D-line will be a great battle to watch. Bears' QB Kyle Orton has a respectable 88 passer rating on the year, has 11 TDs compared to just four interceptions and hasn't thrown a pick eight of the ten games he's played in this year. Vikings QB Gus Frerotte had a great game against Tampa Bay's normally superb defense two weeks ago and has had a passer rating 105.8 or better in two of his last four games; in the other two games, his rating has been 56.2 or worse. Which Frerotte shows up will make the difference, but he has proven that he can beat quality D's. Vikes win and cover the three points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The Texans are getting better as the season goes on, with QB Sage Rosenfels improving over the past month since replacing Matt Schaub. Jax QB David Garard isn't being protected by his porous O-line. Neither team has performed to how pre-season predictions had them doing, but the Texans seem to be on the way up as Jax seems in disarray and pundits are wondering about coach Jack Del Rio's future with the team just months after signing an extension to 2012. Texans are favoured by three which sounds about right; this game is going to be about not making mistakes and exploiting the ones the opponents make. Give this one to the home team which is playing its first ever Monday Night Football game.
posted by Paul Tuns at 4:24 PM

 
Another reason there won't be an election

Just because the government falls, does not mean the Governor General must call an election. (Time for a high level civics lesson, folks.) CP is reporting that Jean Chretien and Ed Broadbent are talking about the Liberals and NDP forming a coalition government if they defeat the Tories over funding their political parties.
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:30 AM

 
Prediction on an election in Canada

Not going to happen. Liberals have generally been very careful to say that they are not supporting the economic statement rather than say they are opposing it. And even if they were to oppose it, one of the other parties would find a way not to show up. And do any of the opposition parties really want to force an election on the issue of taxpayer handouts to political parties?
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:20 AM

 
Planned Parenthood is disgusting

LifeNews reports that Planned Parenthood of Indiana is promoting gift cards from their clinics for Christmas. The cards can be redeemed for breast examinations and pap smears, contraception and abortions. As the PPIN press release states:

"Why not buy a loved one a gift this holiday season that they really need ... The gift certificates are also a wonderful idea for that person in your life who puts everyone else first ... Please join Planned Parenthood of Indiana and give the gift of health this holiday season."

So ladies, how would you like a pap smear for Christmas? Or an abortion?
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:12 AM

 
InTrade on InTrade

From the online forecasting/betting site InTrade:

"We have now just listed 4 new markets on whether Intrade.com will open and operational at the end of June 09, December ’09, June ’10 and December ’10."

Their explanation is here. Their exchange is here. So far, betting is strong that they will be around.
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:08 AM

 
Robson on campus politics

Ottawa Citizen columnist John Robson on the brouhaha over the Carleton University Students Association refusing to raise money for cystic fibrosis because it disproportionately affects white men (a decision they later reversed):

"It is also remarkable that those who passed the original CUSA motion did not realise it would be controversial, let alone that it ought to be. The lesson: Student politics is frequently dominated by childish, hothouse radicalism."

And as a bonus, Robson points to politically correct ailments that disproportionately affect certain segments of the population (AIDS, breast cancer) that get privileged treatment.
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:04 AM

 
More about Islam than Mumbai

Andrew McCarthy in The Corner:

"In July 2007, our intelligence community released findings of a National Intelligence Estimate that indicated jihadist ideology had become so extensively propagated in the West that the mediating influence of terrorist organizations like al Qaeda was no longer essential in order for radical cells to spring up and interconnect. Naturally, these local operatives are spurred, in part, by local and regional issues. But, though the mainstream press recoils from this reality, such local issues are fitted to an ideological framework that is global, hegemonic, and more about the ultimate triumph of fundamentalist Islam than, say, a Palestinian state, Kashmir, Danish cartoons, economic inequality, or whatever this week's complaint is."
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:00 AM

 
AGT revisited

Tennessee Titans 47, Detroit Lions 10: Amazing: 47 points and neither Titans QB had a TD pass. Importantly for the Titans, their run looked good: RB Chris Johnson had 125 yards on 16 carries for 2 TDs and RB LenDale White had 106 yards on 23 carries and 2 TDs. It was never close, with Tennessee leading 35-3 before the Lions scored their TD. The margin and total points should put an end to the sports meme of the week, namely that the Titans have been supplanted by the Jets as the team to beat in the AFC. Correctly predicted Titans to cover the 11 point spread.

Dallas Cowboys 34, Seattle Seahawks 9: Dallas dominated, with QB Tony Romo having a solid game: 22/34, 331 yards, 3 TDs against one interception. TE Jason Witten really came back: 9 catches for 115 yards and a TD. Dallas looked great, Romo made some big passes, the offense was diverse and spread out the 'Hawks defense and their own defense did not allow a Seattle TD. Correctly predicted Cowboys to cover the 13 point spread.

Philadelphia Eagles 48, Arizona Cardinals 20: Everything that has recently gone wrong for the Eagles, turned around. The O-line was better, the defense got their act together, struggling Brian Westbrook (playing with knee and leg injuries) tied the Eagles' record of four scores -- two each running and catching -- in one game, and Donovan McNabb had an incredible game (27/39, 260 yards, 260, 4 TDs, 121.7 passer rating). Cards didn't help their cause with four turnovers, including Kurt Warner uncharacteristically throwing three picks. I thought the Cards would win because while sometimes one part of the team will fix what's wrong, seldom does everything fix itself simultaneously. Prepare yourself for talk about the Eagles making a run for the playoffs. (Not going to happen.)
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:57 AM

 
Ezra to the Tories

From Ezra Levant's website:

"I've got a question for my friends in the Conservative government. Two actually:

1. If the Toronto Star, Globe and Mail, CBC, etc., etc., are all on side with repealing section 13, what's the political risk anymore? Other than a washed-up old Adscammer and a few lawyers who make their money off the censorship racket, is there anyone in the country who supports it? In fact, wouldn't repealing section 13 be a great way to reach out to the intellectual Left -- such as PEN Canada, EGALE, and other liberal groups -- and show that the government respects freedom of expression? Wouldn't that be an interesting way to counter charges made earlier this year about the government's approach to free expression in arts grants? In other words, isn't it clear by now that repealing section 13 is not only not dangerous, but it would be a positive political win?

2. More briefly: doesn't it feel weird to have the Toronto Star outflank a Conservative government on the issue of freedom? Does the government really want to be seen as the last people to wake up to the threat of section 13, and to do so reluctantly and in a miserly manner? Shake your head!"
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:22 PM

 
Great new journal

Policy in Public, from Cardus, formerly the Work Research Foundation. The lead article and a rebuttal piece are on the construction sector in Canada, there is a review of Paul Martin Jr.'s memoir Hell or High Water, and a round-up of what other think tanks and policy shops are doing (much as the old American Enterprise magazine used to do).
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:15 PM

 
Any given Thursday










Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions: If the New York Jets hadn't beaten the Titans on Sunday, the Thanksgiving game in Detroit would have featured an 11-0 team facing an 0-11 game. Over the past three games, the Titans' rush has been a shell of its former self (59.7 yards per game and a total of one TD compared to nearly 150 yards per game and 15 TDs in 8 games) and in the game against New York their O-line was repeatedly penetrated by the Jets defense. In other words, they are looking more vulnerable. But now they play the awful Lions, who have blown double-digit leads in three of their past four games. The Titans should re-establish their running game, facing the Lions' terrible rush defense (worst rush yards allowed, second worst yards per carry and third most running TDs allowed). Also, QB Kerry Collins will have lots of time in the pocket because the Lions defense can't pressure anyone. Titans win and cover the 11 point spread.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys: Seattle is improving, but they are starting from such a low base that even a better 'Hawks game is pretty pathetic. QB Matt Hasselbeck hasn't been all that impressive since returning in early November (five interceptions in two games). The Boys are hitting their stride, with the O-line regaining its early dominance, the defense stopping opposing offenses cold (41 points allowed in their last three wins) and Tony Romo showing what he is capable of. TO is happy and productive, and TE Jason Witten is ready for a big game. Seattle's pass defense is weak, so Romo will probably find his targets and if he can't watch RB Marion Barber to run lots. Cowboys win and cover the 13.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are in turmoil and it isn't all the QB situation. Their O-line has been a sieve recently, RB Brian Westrook hasn't been running and, oh yes, Donovan McNabb has been horrible lately. In his last three games, McNabb has completion percentages of 47.2%, 48.3% and 44.4% and in his last two games his passer rating has been 50.9 and 13.2. Add to that, the controversy of McNabb being benched at half-time last week and the decision the organization has to make about whether he is their QB, and you have a recipe for an upset against the home team. The Cards lost but looked good against the NFL's best team, the New York Giants, on Sunday, and they have one of the two best aerial games with QB Kurt Warner and a deep wide receiver corps led by Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. What should keep the Eagles in the game is their defense which is still strong and capable of being dominant. Their blitzing defense will pressure Warner and their secondary will pester Arizona's WRs. Philly is favoured by three, but as the ESPN Power Rankings said this week, don't be surprised if Arizona finds a way to win in Philadelphia.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:44 PM

 
AGS revisited

Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Cincinatti Bengals 10: Cincy got off to a 7-0 first quarter lead and then gave up 27 answered Steelers points. Steelers O-line protected Ben Roethlisberger (no sacks) and he responded by leading four quality drives (54, 72, 64 and 73 yards), three which ended with a TD and one in a field goal. Big Ben was 6/14 on third downs. Troy Polamalu intercepted a Ryan Fitzpatrick pass in the red zone in the final seconds to make those who bet on the Steelers (by 10.5) happy. I predicted Pittsburgh would win and cover.

Baltimore Ravens 36, Philadelphia Eagles 7: I predicted a Ravens win, but didn't think it would be so big. Turnovers were the difference maker, because the teams were close except in this area: Philly had five, Ravens had none. Kevin Kolb started at QB in the second half, replacing Donovan McNabb, who just one week ago played in overtime without any urgency because he was unaware that NFL games could end in ties. Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun noted that Eagles had almost as many turnovers (5) as points (7). Ouch.

Houston Texans 16, Cleveland Browns 6: I thought would win. Browns had five turnovers and turned game calling duties back to Derek Anderson during the game because of Brady Quinn's injured index finger.

Dallas Cowboys 35, San Francisco 49ers 22: I predicted the Cowboys to win and cover (10 points). Niners got off to a 6-0 lead but coughed up 22 second quarter points. Tony Romo had a big game for the Boys: 23 of 39 for 341 yards and 3 TDs. WR Terrell Owens had a bigger game: seven catches for 213 yards and 1 TD, including a big 75 yard play. He didn't have a 100 yard receiving game in the previous 10 games and then effectively had two of them in game 11.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Detroit Lions 20: I thought the Bucs would win without covering the 8.5 spread. But one should never under-estimate how truly terrible the Lions are. They blew a 17-0 first quarter lead and were behind by half-time. Tampa took some chances and was two-for-two on fourth downs in their drive to come back. They scored five unanswered TDs in the second and third quarters. Both teams had three turnovers. Lions fall to 0-11 and have five more tries to avoid a completely futile season.

Minnesota Vikings 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 12: I thought Jax would win a close, back-and-forth game. Vikes were never behind and won just their second road game even though the Jags had nearly 100 more net yards than the victors.

Buffalo Bills 53, Kansas City Chiefs 31: With both teams struggling, I thought Bills would win a close one. Chiefs had five turnovers, including two Tyler Thigpen interceptions. Bills QB Trent Edwards returned to his early season form: 24/32, 273 yards, 2 TDs, no interceptions. WR Lee Evans had five catches for 110 yards, including one play for 51 yards. Buffalo decisively ends their four-game losing streak.

New England Patriots 48, Miami Dolphins 28: I said, "New England is favoured by by 1, but they should win by more." They did. They dominated with 530 total net yards. QB Matt Cassel was 30 for 43 for 415 yards and 3 TDs. Both Randy Moss and Wes Welker caught for at least 120 yards and Moss had 3 touchdowns. Nice to see Cassel finally connecting with Moss. While the final score indicated the game was a blowout, the lead changed seven times.

Chicago Bears 27, St. Louis Rams 3: I doubted the Bears ability to beat the 9.5 point spread. Rams gave up four turnovers, lost their starting QB and Bears RB Matt Forte had 132 yards on 20 carries (including one for 47 yards) and two TDs. All adds up to a convincing Bears victory. Rams are reaching Lions' level of suckitude. They were held to just 14 rushing yards.

New York Jets 34, Tennessee Titans 13: I thought the Titans would win, but thought that if anyone could beat the Titans it was the Jets. Jets dominated: 409 total net yards and 40:30 minutes of possession, compared to 281 net yards and 19:30 minutes of possession. Normally stellar Titans defense couldn't contain Brett Favre (25 for 32 for 224 yards and two TDs). Jets defense prevented any Titans runner or receiver from getting more than 46 yards. Titans lose for the first team this season.

Oakland Raiders 31, Denver Broncos 10: I went back and forth about whether the Broncs would cover the 9.5 points, but I had no doubt they would win. Raiders Darren McFadden had 10 carries for just 38 yards but two TDs. JaMarcus Russell made 10 of 11 throws. Broncs had two interceptions. And although these stats might explain why the Broncs lost, it does not explain how they could lose to the Raiders.

Atlanta Falcons 45, Carolina Panthers 28: Although Atlanta was favoured by one, I thought the Panthers could win. The Panthers had more yards, controlled possession and didn't have a turnover, yet the Falcons won decisively. The difference: Rb Michael Turner ran for 117 yards and had four TDs. Panthers WR Steve Smith had a big game, too: 8 catches for 168 yards, including a 41-yard play. Teams combined for 43 points in the fourth quarter.

New York Giants 37, Arizona Cardinals 29: I thought Kurt Warner would lead the Cards to an upset, but the G-Men are just incredible, tied for the NFL-best 10-1. It was close for the first half, with the lead changing five times, but the Giants can win with their passing game, running game or by shutting down opponents' offense. They couldn't quite prevent Warner from getting the job done (32/52, 351 yards, 1 TD) but the Cards need a more balanced offense (they went to the pass for 21 of 23 first downs). Eli Manning had a great game: 26/33, 240 yards, 3 TDs (all by different receivers).

Washington Redskins 20, Seattle Seahawks 17: I said I wouldn't be surprised to see the Skins beat the three point spread but although Washington dominated total yards and possession, they needed a fourth quarter field goal to win.

Indianapolis Colts 23, San Diego Chargers 20: I predicted the Colts would upset the Chargers. It was an exciting game between two good teams with a fun combination of running and passing. The Chargers are 4-7 but four of their losses have come in the final 24 seconds and two of the games were decided by bad calls. They lost this one on a 51-yard FG by Adam Vinatieri on the second last second of the game, partly because of poor clock management by the Chargers that gave Indy QB Peyton Manning a minute-and-a-half to get his kicker in scoring position.

New Orleans Saints 51, Green Bay Packers 29: I predicted an upset by the Packers on the strength of their pass offense which I thought would shut down Saints QB Drew Brees (which didn't happen) and that the Packers would go with the running game to keep Brees off the field (Aaron Rodgers was passing when it was close). Rodgers threw three picks and the Saints fooled the Packers into making bad defensive runs, but the big difference was Brees: 20/26, 323 yards, 4 TDs. Brees threw for two 70-yard plays. The RBs also had three TDs, two by Pierre Thomas and one by Deuce McAllister, who scored his 54th TD as a Saint in his career, the most in franchise history.
posted by Paul Tuns at 12:02 AM

 
Photos from Israel, Part X
(Jerusalem)
























The Old City of Jerusalem, an area of the city that has some very important religious sites for Christians (Church of the Holy Sepulchre), Jews (the Temple Mount and the Western Wall) and Muslims (Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa Mosque). The brilliant golden dome is the Dome of the Rock, built in 691 although the golden roof is of more recent vintage (the past 50 years).

























Garden of Gethsemane (where Jesus was betrayed by Judas) at the foot of the Mount of Olives, from the top of the hill. The golden domes belong to the Russian Orthodox Church of St. Mary Magdalene.

























The third station of the cross (Jesus falls for the first time) in an Armenian Catholic church as part of the Via Dolorosa, which is (strangely) in the Muslim quarter of the Old City. Fifteen feet from the church are street-front shops including one selling lingerie and a t-shirt with a machine gun on it that read: 'Uzi does it'.

























The Western Wall. A rabbi approached me and asked if I was married. I said yes. He asked if I had children. I answered that I had five. He gave me a blessing and I said thank you. He informed me that I should show him my appreciation and I gave him a few shekels. He said, "No, American dollars." There were a half-dozen such rabbis shaking visitors down for blessings.
























The Western Wall, from a distance.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:01 PM

 
Photos from Israel, Part IX
(Bethlehem)
























The Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. Quick story: a cousin of our Palestinian taxi driver collected four from our group to jump the queue to see the location marking when the manger was 2000 years ago in the cave where Jesus was born. He brought us to the Greek Orthodox priest who let us skip the one hour wait and go down to the Grotto and take our time to pray and take pictures at the silver star, beneath the altar. Afterward, the priest let us know that if we had appreciated his expediting our visit downstairs, he would gladly accept a demonstration of our gratitude. After I paid him off, he paid the 'cousin' who claimed to be named Joseph, although the priest called him Khalil.

























The security wall separating Bethlehem and Jerusalem, from the Palestinian side. On the Palestinian side, there is plenty of graffiti.

























The security wall from the Israeli side. There is no graffiti on this side, and picture-taking is frowned upon.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:46 PM

 
Photos from Israel, Part VIII
(Second coolest moment in Israel)
























At a truck stop, somewhere just north of Jericho.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:40 PM

 
Photos from Israel, Part VII
(Dead Sea)
























The Dead Sea, which is 20% salt.

























Me in the Dead Sea. I couldn't sink, even when trying. I only rotated.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:11 PM

 
Photos from Israel, Part VI
(Bet She'an)

























There is a giant archaeological dig at Bet She'an. Here is a picture of most of the excavated. The bath house, ampitheatre, columns and foundations are 4,000-4,500 years old.

























The ampitheatre.

























Restored pillars at Bet She'an.
posted by Paul Tuns at 6:07 PM

 
Photos from Israel, Part V
(Mount Tabor -- the coolest part of the trip)
























These two members of the IDF were making coffee on top of Mount Tabor -- grinding the beans, heating it over an open flame -- and invited our party to join them. It was the best coffee I have ever had, which might be context dependent but might have more to do with the fact that it had cardamon in it.

























Me with a member of the Israeli Defense Forces. At Mount Tabor, which is not near the border, the IDF was very friendly. No hostilities nearby. They invited us for coffee and let us take their picture with them and the humvee. Nearby, the Church of the Transfiguration. Nice enough church, beautiful view from the top of the hill, but nothing quite compares with hanging out with the IDF.
posted by Paul Tuns at 5:47 PM

 
Photos from Israel, Part IV
(Sea of Galilee)
























The Sea of Galilee as seen from my room at the Sheraton in Tiberias.


























The Sea of Galilee (from a boat on the inland lake) with the Golan Heights in the background. The sea is quite small (21 kms long, 13 kms wide).

























The White Synagogue, reportedly built upon the synagogue that Jesus used 2000 years ago, in Capernaum ('the town of Jesus').


























The Catholic chapel at the Mount of Beatitudes.

























The River Jordan.
posted by Paul Tuns at 12:54 PM

 
Photos from Israel, Part III
(Nazareth)
























City of Nazareth, which is mostly Arab and Muslim today. The cities in the west (north of Tel Aviv) and toward the centre of the country in the north, look like this, built along the sides of hills and mountains.

























The Church of the Annunciation in Nazareth. Later I will post the art from around the world depicting the Virgin Mary that is displayed in the courtyard outside the church and within the church.

























Another view of the Church of the Annunciation.

























Sign put up by locals in front of the Church of the Annunciation.

























Church of St. Gabriel, the Greek Orthodox Church in Nazareth.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:27 AM

 
Photos from Israel, Part II
(Caesarea)
























Remains of King Herod's palace at Caesarea, an ancient city built on the Mediterranean coast north of Tel Aviv. The city was originally built by Straton I of Sidon but rebuilt, expanded and renamed by Herod to impress his Roman superiors.

























The remains of the hippodrome at Caesarea. It was open on the east side so the winds and mist from the sea could cool spectators.

























This is the site of the Apollo Temple built by Herod. When the city was taken over by Christians, they tore down the temple and replaced it with a church. When the Muslims took over the city, they tore down the church and replaced it with a mosque.

























Walls and a dry moat were built by Louis IV to fortify the city during Crusader times.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:03 AM

 
Photos from Israel, Part I
(Tel Aviv)
























Looking north in Tel Aviv from St. Peter's Church.

























Looking east from my hotel room. If I turn 90 degree right, I would be looking at the Mediterranean.
posted by Paul Tuns at 12:10 PM

 
How not to annoy people

Gretchen Rubin at The Happiness Project has a list of seven things to do (and not do) to avoid annoying others:

1. Don’t use a whiny voice.

2. Watch your cell phone use.

3. Don’t curse.

4. Clean up after yourself.

5. Think about whether you’re being interesting. Certain topics are very interesting to the speaker, much less interesting to the listener: descriptions of dreams, fond discussions about your children, re-tellings of the plots of movies or plays.

6. Watch the eye-stray. When you’re talking to someone in a crowded room, it’s tempting to keep looking around at the other people. This is very annoying to the person to whom you’re speaking; it feels like you’re hoping to find a more interesting conversationalist...

7. Remember that different things annoy different people.

Rubin expands on these points at her blog.

As for me, I was okay until point three, and then it was all down hill.
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:13 AM

 
Tyranny of Nice reviewed































John Jalsevac writes of Kathy Shaidle and Pete Vere, co-authors of The Tyranny of Nice:

"Indeed, this humble pair has done a great service for those who are concerned about the future of democratic freedoms in Canada. They have pulled together in one short, easy-to-read, 80-page volume, a goodly portion of the lunacy of the commissions, well documented and entertainingly presented; and the end result is to leave no question that the commissions amount to a serious threat to freedom in Canada and that something must be done about it."

The full review is at LifeSiteNews.com.
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:09 AM

 
MSM inadvertently reports the truth

Daily Telegraph:

"The Houses of Parliament, Downing Street and other parts of Whitehall are infested with vermin, according to official reports."

(HT: Samizdata)
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:08 AM

 
You just can't close Gitmo

Benjamin Wittes of the Brookings Institute has a thoughtful column in the Washington Post on the issues surrounding the closing of Guantanamo. He states, quite correctly, that whatever problems arise from the detention operations there, one cannot close it without addressing what to do with those are detained there. Wittes says:

"There are three major groups of detainees at Guantanamo, each presenting distinct policy problems. For starters, there are detainees who could face trial. Most people regard criminal prosecution as the best means of neutralizing terrorism suspects and justifying their long-term detention, and some people regard trial as the only legitimate means of locking up America's enemies. But how big is the group that might plausibly face charges? And to what extent does its size depend on which forum the government uses for prosecution? Is it a much smaller group if America tries these people in federal courts or courts-martial than if it continues using President Bush's much-derided military commissions? Without knowing the answer to these questions, one cannot accurately assess the costs and benefits of America's trial options.

Second, roughly 60 detainees have been cleared for release or transfer from Guantanamo but are stuck there because of fears of mistreatment at the hands of their own governments. Will Obama have an easier time than Bush in persuading third countries to accept these detainees, particularly if he accepts a few of them into the United States? That may well be the case, but without serious diplomatic engagement over the question, we simply can't know how intractable this problem will prove to be. The ruling yesterday by a federal judge in Washington that five of six detainees in one case were held unlawfully raises the additional question of how many detainees should simply be released.

Third and most troublesome are the detainees too dangerous to be released but who cannot face criminal charges. How many, if any, this group contains will ultimately shape Obama's policy. Detainees who pose a grave national security threat might be unprosecutable for a variety of reasons: because of deficiencies in the criminal law as it stood in 2001, because evidence against them would not stand up in court, because the government might not have enough evidence to convict or because it obtained key evidence under coercive conditions. If there are only a few such detainees, and the danger they pose seems manageable, those of us who have advocated a preventive detention system should reconsider our position. On the other hand, some human rights advocates acknowledge privately that they may reconsider their categorical opposition to preventive detention if the group proves substantial and the danger it poses too significant to ignore. Right now, we can only guess at this group's size."

I look forward to the Obama administration publicly stating their plans.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:12 AM

 
Space-age journalism

John Schwartz in his New York Times blog:

"How does distilled urine and sweat taste?

Not bad, actually."

Not that NYT writers go around drinking pee and sweat for fun -- this is part of their duties in covering NASA. Schwartz explains:

"[T]he 'water recovery system,' which will recycle the station’s water supply. That’s right: urine, sweat in the air, waste water and other forms of moisture will be fed into the system, distilled and sent back to the tap.

The system, created at a cost of about $250 million, will recycle about 93 percent of the water used aboard the station. The cost of lifting supplies up to orbit is so high, though, that NASA estimates the system could pay for itself in as little as two years. Similar systems would be essential to maintaining long-term bases on faraway outposts on the Moon and Mars."

This seems to go beyond the call of duty for journalists, although New York Times' writers seem to have strange fetishes; a few weeks ago one wrote about fondling a Kindle.

Still, re-using water in this way isn't as horrible as it sounds; many communities use similar systems to conserve water and reduce waste (Orange County, for example). But this falls into the 'ignorance is bliss' file.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:07 AM

 
New modesty for coverage of His Royal Hopeness

The introduction in Jonah Goldeberg's article on Barack Obama-Abraham Lincoln comparisons is priceless:

"In an attempt to dial down expectations for his administration, President-elect Barack Obama’s supporters have dropped much of the 'messiah' talk.

No more talk of him being The One (Oprah), or a Jedi Knight (George Lucas), or a 'Lightworker' (the San Francisco Chronicle), or a 'quantum leap in American consciousness' (Deepak Chopra). Instead we have more humble and circumspect conversation about the man. Now he’s merely Abraham Lincoln and FDR and Martin Luther King, combined."
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:04 AM

 
The brilliance of government planning

Caroline Porter at the Adam Smith Institute blog notes:

"In England, the NHS reduced spending on maternity by £55 million in 2006-07, while the birthrate has risen 16 percent since 2001."

This has ramifications:

"NHS shortcomings have caused an increasing number of litigations from the victims of insufficient care. The cost of maternity-related claims has risen from £163 million in 2003-04 to £288 million in 2007-08."

The London Times story on this development is here.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:01 AM

 
Brooks on the next administration

David Brooks in today's New York Times:

"This truly will be an administration that looks like America, or at least that slice of America that got double 800s on their SATs. Even more than past administrations, this will be a valedictocracy — rule by those who graduate first in their high school classes. If a foreign enemy attacks the United States during the Harvard-Yale game any time over the next four years, we’re screwed."

Of course, to too many Republicans, this much education and academic achievement is reason enough to dislike the Democratic administration.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:59 AM

 
A few observations about my trip to Israel


















It has been a week since I returned from a week-long trip to Israel. I went with four other Canadian Catholic journalists on a junket paid for by the Israeli Board of Tourism. The board of tourism wants us to promote trips to the Holy Land in our publications and broadcasts and the only condition is that the stories not be political. I have a few political and sociological observations in this post that won't make into my coverage that will appear in a forthcoming edition of The Interim. So here are a few -- well, 21, so more than a few -- thoughts about my trip. There is more to come later.

1) If you are preparing a trip to Israel, be prepared for a lot of this question: "Israel?" By which the other person means, "Are you crazy, do you know how dangerous it is?" But it isn't dangerous.

2) The only time I didn't feel safe was when our guide took us around some ancient ruins and we came across two pit bulls. At first, we weren't sure if they could get to us, but they were, in fact, securely in a fenced in area. I have never been so scared in my life, but this had nothing to do with Israel's typical dangers and could have happened anywhere.

3) I know Israel is a Western country but it was still jarring to see the Western advertising (Pierre Cardin and KFC) and two McDonald's within a block of one another.

4) Muslims and Jews live beside one another, but in no sense together. They generally don't work together, and certainly don't eat or shop in the same places.

5) I knew that it was an ethnically diverse country, but I wasn't prepared for how much. Or how different various Muslims or Jews were.

6) Many Russian Jews might be Russian, but they aren't Jews. They claimed they were to get out of Russia/the Soviet Union.

7) We stayed in Tel Aviv, Tiberias (after an afternoon in Nazareth) and Jerusalem. Tel Aviv is the most western and is the country's commercial center. Tiberias is like a resort town. There is no analogy for Jerusalem, which has historic sites within eye shot of tall, new apartments.

8) The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were friendlier the farther away from the West Bank one is. I'll explain more about this in another post.

9) I am a Zionist, and the security wall has made life for the average Israeli a lot safer. But a short trip to Palestinian territory (to Bethlehem, for example) and talking to Palestinians can challenge one's views. It is, understandably, a source of deep resentment. That said, if there wasn't the fence, it would be something else.

10) The country is geographically diverse. Within three hours, you have the Mediterranean coastal areas with banana and palm trees, the temperate woody areas of the north, grassy hills, mountains and desertish. And we only saw the top third of the country.

11) The Sea of Galilee is a lake, and a small one at that. You could probably drive around it in an hour.

12) People there like ice cream. Ice cream shops and stands are about as common as Tim Hortons or coffee shops are here in Canada.

13) The driving is crazy. One of my colleagues and I joked about starting a pool for when the first fender bender would be. Then we joked about a second pool for the first head-on collision. There are few stop lights, stop signs or yields, even when roads converge. At least in Jamaica, people honk when they are passing over hills or around corners or merge into traffic without slowing down or looking. Not in Israel.

14) Relatedly, drivers break very late, almost at the last second. Most cars stop within a foot of the car in front of them. Yet, we didn't see one accident. Nor, thankfully, were we part of one.

15) One last traffic note: the car horn might be the national sound. Wait even a milli-second once a light turns green in Jerusalem and be prepared to be honked at.

16) The churches (eastern orthodox and Catholic) are beautiful and even though many of them were built in the past century, they mark significant sites -- or the historically accepted site where this or that is thought to have occurred. I'll have more about this in another post.

17) The Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem left me cold. It is located at the historically accepted site of the cave where Jesus was born. But a local Palestinian guide (not the one we had for the rest of the trip because Israeli guides are not allowed into Palestinian-controlled areas) collected us and had a Russian orthodox priest assist us jumping the one-hour queue to go into the grotto where a manger is set up and a well to the rocks below is kissed by visitors. When we were done going through the grotto the priest let us know that is we had "something in your heart to show how much you appreciated" his help, he would gladly accept. I don't want to use the word bribe... As we left, the priest gave the 'helpful' guide a handshake after which the guide placed something in his pocket. What a racket. Jesus would have thrown them out of the church.

18) While the Christians in Jerusalem generally don't get along -- the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Old Jerusalem was closed just before our visit because Armenian and Greek Orthodox monks fought there one day -- most local Christians hate Armenian Christians and none seem to have problems with the Catholics.

19) Yad Vahsem moved me more than I expected. There were times I could barely contain the tears at the Holocaust memorial and museum.

20) The board of tourism wanted us to see lots so we can come back and promote the Holy Land as a pilgrimage site for our readers. So we were very busy with non-stop days that ran from 8:30-5:30 (or later), followed by a meal that usually started at 9 pm and lasted two to two-and-a-half hours. I hope to post something about eating in Israel at a later date.

21) I was wearing three hats during my trip to Israel: my tourist hat, my journalist hat and my pilgrim hat. I didn't spend enough time with that last hat and would love to return purely as a pilgrim. That said, I found my faith deepened and reinforced. I can't say why (because I don't know). Perhaps it was the greater understanding of Biblical stories that comes with familiarity with the region; perhaps it was the chance to reflect on the beautiful art on display in many of the churches; perhaps it was the knowledge that about 2000 years ago Jesus lived in the area that we covered during our six day stay. I don't know why and I'm not sure it would make any sense if I did know, but I do know I returned spiritually refreshed.

That's all for now. I'll post about specific sites and themes later, when I have my pictures ready to post. I took more than 600 pictures, so I have to decide on a few good ones. I also have to write a story for The Interim -- perhaps more than one -- and don't want to use my best stuff here (just yet).
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:53 AM

 
Any given Sunday










Cincinatti Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bengals, their tie against the Philadelphia Eagles notwithstanding, are awful. The Steelers have hit their stride. Ben Roesthlisberger has had a pair of strong games by getting rid of the ball quickly with short passes. Pittsburgh has the second best defense in league and it should crush the Bengals who are missing key pieces (Carson Palmer, Chad Ocho Cinco). Steelers win and cover the 10.5 point spread by scoring their first offensive TDs in three games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens: Both teams are coming off disappointing games: Philly tying the hapless Bengals and the normally strong defense of the Ravens allowing the Giants to score 30 points. Philly has been inconsistent all year and Donovan McNabb hasn't found a passing target he is comfortable with; he was comprehensively awful in the Cincy tie. Ravens are at home, have a defense that can contain McNabb and perhaps Brian Westbrook and must win to stay within striking distance of the Steelers. Baltimore is favoured by 1 (some oddsmakers have it even). Ravens win.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: Wake me up when this one is over. Brady Quinn will lead the Browns to a second straight victory as Cleveland covers the three points.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: The Giants have played better since Mike Singletary took over as head coach a few weeks ago, but the Cowboys have figured out how to win and are playing with their backs against the walls. Tony Romo was solid while employing a short-pass game to complement Marion Barber's superior running game. The defense has been effective and the O-line is letting Romo and Barber have the room to do their thing. Romo will go downfield to Terrell Owens and Roy E. Williams more often. San Fran can't keep up with handing the ball to RB Frank Gore. Cowboys win and should cover the 10 points.

Tampa Bay Bucaneers at Detroit Lions: Tampa is favoured by 8.5 and although Detroit is horrendous, the Bucs lack the offensive firepower to score the padding to cover. To beat the Lions by nine, TB's defense has to smother the Lions. Probably won't happen with newly acquired Daunte Culpepper providing a significant upgrade in play calling for Detroit. Really.

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars: Vikes are 1-4 on the road. Some like Minny because their defense is improving and they have the game-changer in RB Adrian Peterson. Others favour Minny because Jax QB David Garrard has completed just 17 of 46 passes and thrown four picks in his past two games. But the Jags won those two games. Jax is favoured by one. They win what should be a close, back-and-forth game.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are exactly what the struggling Bills need to help turn things around, but it is always tough for opponents to win in Kansas City. Buffalo is favoured by three and that sounds right: Bills QB Trent Edwards seems to be regressing as the season progresses and the Chiefs like the development of Tyler Thigpen.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: At the beginning of the season, no one would have cared: the Pats, most people would have predicted, would win easily. But both teams are in a four-way race for perhaps two playoff spots from the AFC East. Dolphins scored five TDs -- actually Ronnie Brown scored five TDs -- to upset the Pats in week 2. But Matt Cassel has developed into a competent QB and the Pats defense has got their act together. New England is favoured by by 1, but they should win by more.

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: Will the Bears play a still-injured QB Kyle Orton again this week? Rex Grossman, Orton's replacement, against a miserable Rams team might be an even matchup. Still, I think they start Orton because they need wins to stay in the playoff hunt. Bears are favoured by 9.5 and that sounds like a lot considering the team's recent difficulty scoring. Chicago RB Matt Forte should rediscover his early season self and their defense should push around QB Marc Bulger and whoever he hands/passes the ball to. The Bears win but don't cover.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Jets are finally winning and letting Favre be Favre. But the Titans have a suffocating defense and QB Kerry Collins adapts quickly to opponents' defensive pressure: if they shut down the running game, Collins goes to the air; if they are playing a strong pass defense, he hands the ball off to RB Chris Johnson. Yet the Jets can make big plays with Brett Favre, although it would not be surprising to see the Titans sack him a half-dozen times and force several interceptions or fumbles. Titans win and cover the 5.5 by forcing Favre mistakes.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Raiders are trying to prove they are not as bad as they appear to be while the Broncos are trying to keep ahead of the sputtering San Diego Chargers. Jay Cutler returned to form last week, but the Broncs are still a flawed team. Their defense, as FoxSports' Peter Schrager says, "couldn't stop a middle school team." Still, beating Oakland is not much of a challenge, especially at home. (For a good article on how badly the Raiders are in disarray, read Michael Wagaman's Pro Football Weekly story.) Raiders haven't scored a TD in 13 quarters and have just 50 points in their last six games, but the Broncos defense should fix that. The question is whether the Broncs' well-balanced offense (now that Denver has overcome injuries to their backs) can put up the points. My guess is that they can and cover the 9.5.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: Falcons can stay in the NFC South race with a home win, but beating the Panthers, who have a superior defense, strong running game and a legit receiving threat in Steve Smith, is no easy task. Atlanta if favoured by one, but Carolina wins this one on the road.

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals: A likely preview of the NFC championship. Giants dominated a strong team beating the Ravens 30-10 last week. Arizona has an amazing aerial game with Kurt Warner searching out four legit targets. Watch for the G-men blitz the QB, providing a small window for Warner to find Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Goldin, neither of whom will be double-teamed. We'll have to see how much resting injured RB Brandon Jacobs for the game changes the Giants' game. New York is favoured by three but I'm predicting they fall to 9-2, losing in the stadium in which they won the Super Bowl last year.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks: Skins QB Jason Campbell has had an awful two weeks, throwing his first four interceptions of the season, although a lot of that has to do with the offensive line not protecting him. Skins coach Jim Zorn was QB coach in Seattle and knows his opponents. A healthy Clinton Portis provides more offensive opportunities for Washington and the 'Hawks pass defense is pretty bad. Indeed, the Hawks are pretty bad down the line: they rank second last in offensive yardage and 28th in defensive yardage. Washington is favoured by three, but I won't be surprised to see them with a bigger win coming off back-to-back home losses.

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers: Neither team has been as bad as they sometimes seem. The Bolts are 4-6 but three of their losses were close (and two controversial). The Colts had to deal with injuries but now seem to have things together, winning three in a row. Chargers QB Philip Rivers' pass game seems to be getting worse as the season progresses and their defense is missing Shawne Merriman more than anyone expected (their pass defense is ranked dead last). Yet, the Bolts are closer to turning their season around and finishing 500. Still, I like the roll the Colts -- or more precisely Peyton Manning -- are on. Manning in those three wins: 814 yards, 7 TDs, no picks. Bolts are favoured by three, but the Colts will continue their winning streak because San Diego's defense isn't going to stop Manning, RB Joseph Addai or receivers Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez.

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: What a match-up: the best pass offense (the Drew Brees-led Saints) against the third best pass defense. Packers have 16 picks on the year, six returned for scores. On the run-side of the game, the strong Packers ground game, led by Ryan Grant, faces the 19th-ranked run defense. That could be the difference as Green Bay uses the run game to keep Brees and his receivers off the field. The home team is favoured by three and Brees can make anything happen, but Green Bay will prevent the Saints from winning back-to-back games for the first time in '08.
posted by Paul Tuns at 7:01 PM

 
World Toilet Day

Today is World Toilet Day, as declared by the WTO -- the World Toilet Organization. This isn't one of those useless UN-declared days where everyone acknowledges a problem or issue, makes platitudinous speeches and then goes on their merry lives. The WTO is committed to improving the lives of the approximately 2.6 billion people who have no toilets (and nearly half of those who have toilets do not have toilets as we in the West think of them, hooked up to sewers and such, but often temporary toilets where the 'waste' is collected and sometimes used as biogas).

Here are 20 toilet facts, culled from Rose George's The Big Necessity: The Unmentionable World of Human Waste and Why it Matters:

1) The toilet was either invented 2000 or 500 years ago.

2) Readers of Focus magazine rated the toilet the best invention ever (over the wheel).

3) Thomas Crapper did not invent the toilet but rather improved the existing parts.

4) The problem of clean water in the developing world is inextricably linked to the lack of sanitation, as many communities use their water source for bathing, cooking and dumping waste. Nearly two million children die of causes related to the lack of clean water and sanitation.

5) It is estimated that universal global sanitation by 2015 would cost $95 billion.

6) It is estimated that 850,000 phones, most of them cell phones, are accidently flushed every year in the United Kingdom.

7) The WTO has set up the World Toilet College in Singapore and wants to create a peace prize for sanitation.

8) Jennifer Aniston used a body double to clean the toilet in the movie Friends with Money.

9) Japanese toilets are heated, wash the user's 'naughty bits' and remember the settings of its users. Their toilets are the most advanced today yet during World War II, the population used open pits for defecating. Public toilets in Japan make fake flushing sounds to drown out noiese the body makes whilst using the restroom.

10) In 2002, U.S. toilet maker American Standard had no PhDs in their research and development department but now that they face more serious competition from Japanese toilet makers, it has five.

11) Studies show that the lack of washrooms facilities is one of the leading reasons why girls do not stay in school in many parts of Africa -- there is no privacy to go, so they rather stay at home. UNICEF blames the lack of sanitation for one out of three girls in the sub-Sahara dropping out of school. Research has found that when schools installed decent latrines in Bangladesh, India and Tanzania, female enrollment grew 15%.

12) Although at one point in the 20th century, 90% of French homes had a bidet, today just 10% do.

13) Modern North American toilets that are taller because they are designed for older users, may impede the defecation process, leading to increases incidences of colon cancer, constipation and hemorrhoids.

14) The global toilet paper industry is worth $15-20 billion and the average American uses 57 sheets a day.

15) The average bowel movement weighs 250 grams. Each year, the average human produces 77 pounds of excrement and 132 gallons of urine. In the West, that requires 4,000 gallons of water to flush.

16) In China, human excrement is collected and used for fertilizer ('night soil'). In parts of India, it is saved and used for biogas, reducing reliance on electricity and lumber.

17) W.H. Auden allowed guests only one sheet of toilet paper per visit.

18) Most Chinese toilets, even public ones, do not have doors.

19) The London, England sewer system, built after 1858, used 318 million bricks and cost four million pounds (or six billion pounds in today's dollars). The system was created for three inhabitants. It is still used today -- for 13 million people.

20) U.S. toilets pull the water out of the bowl, European toilets push the water out.
posted by Paul Tuns at 5:29 PM

 
Addition by subtraction

The Senate Republican improved their lot with news that the recount in Alaska has resulted in Senator Ted Stevens (R) losing the seat he has held since before I was born. Word that Stevens lost to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich by about 3700 votes out of 315,000 votes cast came on the senator's 85th birthday. Happy birthday Senator! Stevens, who was convicted of seven counts of failing to report gifts just one week before election day, is the first Alaska senator to lose a re-election bid in a general election. The Democrats now have 58 senators (including two 'independents' who caucus with them) with two more races still to be decided.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:54 AM

 
Conservatives are useless

P.J. O'Rourke has an awful but truthful thing to say in last week's Weekly Standard about the Republican victories over the past 28 years: conservatives don't have much to show for their time in power. Sure, sure, I know that the Republican Party and the conservative movement aren't the same thing, but Republican administrations have used conservative policy wonks, conservative strategists, conservative pundits (and vice versa), so equating the two is mostly valid. If conservatives couldn't get the job done -- or even part of the job done -- while their party was in power for the better part of three decades, perhaps it is time for a brutally honest assessment. O'Rourke provides one:

"An entire generation has been born, grown up, and had families of its own since Ronald Reagan was elected. And where is the world we promised these children of the Conservative Age? Where is this land of freedom and responsibility, knowledge, opportunity, accomplishment, honor, truth, trust, and one boring hour each week spent in itchy clothes at church, synagogue, or mosque? It lies in ruins at our feet, as well it might, since we ourselves kicked the shining city upon a hill into dust and rubble."

Of course, politics is just one part of the equation. There is also the news media, popular entertainment, universities, liberal churches, corporations that pander to politically correct pieties and professional organizations that have been taken hostage by them. Still, politics does matter and conservatives haven't used the bully-pulpit of the presidency and control of Congress (for some of that time) very well:

"We've had nearly three decades to educate the electorate about freedom, responsibility, and the evils of collectivism, and we responded by creating a big-city-public-school-system of a learning environment."

After 20 years of Republican rule and eight of a centrist Democrat, "Government is bigger than ever." O'Rourke condemns conservatives for failing to come up with a coherent foreign policy, adequately defending free markets, or protecting the unborn. There is more to conservatism that reducing tax rates. For crying out loud, P.J. O'Rourke is saying that conservatism has to be about more than cutting taxes. But even there, the record is spotty: "[W]e got a few tax breaks during the regimes of Reagan and W. But the government is still taking a third of our salary."

When will the conduit for conservative politics -- the Republicans -- learn? Probably never.

I should add something to O'Rourke's comments about abortion. He says:

"If the citizenry insists that abortion remain legal -- and, in a passive and conflicted way, the citizenry seems to be doing so -- then give the issue a rest. Meanwhile we can, with the public's blessing, refuse to spend taxpayers' money on killing, circumscribe the timing and method of taking a human life, make sure parental consent is obtained when underage girls are involved, and tar and feather teenage boys and run them out of town on a rail."

Abortion would be one of those issues, that no matter how politically unpalatable, is too important to throw over the side of the boat for sake of political victory. So giving the issue 'a rest' isn't -- pardon the expression -- a choice. But O'Rourke is right to say that a change in tactics, namely focusing on incremental change that will reduce abortion, is in order. Paradoxically (to some) by becoming humble in our goals, pro-lifers can get closer to their ultimate goal (of no abortion). The incremental changes suggested by O'Rourke will have the effect of re-energizing the abortion debate by changing the goal posts. By making some abortions unacceptable and unthinkable (by type or timing), it will be easier to convince the public that other abortions are wrong, too. The law is a teacher. For nearly three decades, conservatives in their hostility to government forgot that. And now they may spend a long time on the outside of government watching what liberal lessons the state will provide under far-left Democrat rule.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:21 AM